Has sales stock peaked for this property cycle?

November 16, 2011 1 comment

I saw this article written by Alistair Walsh, and featuring opinions of Louis Christopher of SQM Research (great company, great website!), which was re-posted on the Australian Property Forum, having been originally listed at Property Observer:

http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/no-october-listings-surge-except-in-hobart-and-adelaide/2011110852253

There, Louis discusses his thoughts on whether sales listings have peaked for the time being, ie. for this cycle in the property market. It’s a decent read.

It briefly got me thinking about what I thought, and I wrote a brief piece, which I posted at the Australian Property Forum, but also post here.

Enjoy. Read more…

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Follow up to my last post: The recent Australian sales surge, and the NSW factor

November 13, 2011 1 comment

I wrote a “quick” reply to a visitor name “TM”, who responded to my last post, “Australia: New Phase? Rental Listings Acceleration“.

I suggested that interpreting the significance or not of a rental surge should be understood within context – particularly, the medium-term listings trend, and the sales trends; seasonality is also a very significant factor, and I would suggest it plays a major part in what is occurring…perhaps even the major part at this point in time.

As many know, property is a slow, lumbering, illiquid market, and it is, honestly quite difficult to know what a movement in a parameter or two really means until a good 6 months or so has passed.

I promised some more context, so here is some updated data for Australia. Read more…

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Australia: New Phase? Rental Listings Acceleration (corrected)

November 13, 2011 4 comments

I have recently noticed that, in most states, and for Australia nationally, the market seems to be entering a new “phase” – and be “phase”, I here refer to either the rate of change in sales or rental listings outstripping the other.

The sale-rent ratio seems to be capturing this quite well, for each state and nationally, with the peak and trough pair (where a peak and trough pair here make up a “phase” or “period”), seemingly occurring every 3 or so months or so [edited: wrote 6 months originally]. This could be considered seasonal, and probably is, though there are two interesting points to also consider: Read more…

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Announcement: The ‘BurbWatch Project Commentary

October 30, 2011 2 comments

Well, now that http://www.burbwatch.com.au is now the official site for The BurbWatch Project Charts (both listings and price, and corresponding analytical charts), I’ve given in to my desire to do some commentary.

I will still keep the .com.au site and this WordPress blog site separate, however – I still want people to be able to consider the data-laden charts as a separate offering, free from too much interpretation (human objectivity is an illusion after all!)

Here, at the BurbWatch WordPress site, I will attempt to make some analytical-level interpretations of the BurbWatch data/charts. This means that I will try to interpret the data as one who is dis-interested in what the broader economic, social and political outcomes might be – as hard as that is, I will do my best to do exactly that. I might consider such further commentary at my Angles on Economics site…should I actually ever get around to that.

I have been wanting to do some semi-frequent commentary on the BurbWatch data for quite some time now, but have not really gotten around to it; so I am quite looking forward to this.

It will only be small articles, I believe – I simply don’t have the time to do much more. But, nonetheless, I will try to produce at least one short article per week, and hopefully cast some more light on the data and basic analyses that I have been producing for just over one year now (!!).

I hope you will enjoy the commentary I give, and I don’t mind if you feel you would like to make your own comments.

 

Regards,

Stewart

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The ‘BurbWatch Project – Update, 3/10/2011

October 3, 2011 Leave a comment

Really short post for now…

The site is updated, and their is some new charts for the states; however, I don’t have time right now to write a brief summary and explanation, but plan to get around to it shortly!

 

Thanks again,

Stewart

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Auto-Chart Experiment…

July 18, 2011 Leave a comment

The following chart is something I am considering…

I am actually in the (long) process of semi-automating BurbWatch, and am considering using Google Spreadsheets as the database and chart system, which allows me to dynamically distribute charted data (the actual semi-automatic collection and extraction of data is another matter).

This is only an experiment, so please feel free to let me know what you think, either here in the comment, or at: burbwatch@gmail.com

Enjoy,

Stewart

 

FYI: There is an interactive version at http://www.burbwatch.com.au/#!nsw/vstc2=expt-chart (the “unofficially official” new home of BurbWatch Australia).

 

Feedback is appreciated, if you’ve got the time and inclination – even suggestions are welcome.

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The ‘BurbWatch Project, Update 24/6/2011 …

June 24, 2011 3 comments

Have really not had much spare time lately (and limited internet access!)

So…Burbwatch has been updated…but only at the new http://www.burbwatch.com.au trial site … (the WordPress Burbwatch takes MUCH longer to upload, and I was short on time (again), so chose the quicker option!)

The ‘BurbWatch Project WordPress site will be updated as soon as I can get around to it (should be within the week…)

For those of you that can, go the .com.au site if you wish, else please wait for the WordPress site update.

No time for a commentary on what’s new, etc, for now, sorry – will do that when I update the WordPress site!

Cheers for now,
Stewart

 

Remember: please go to http://www.burbwatch.com.au for now…

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