Home > Uncategorized > Hi again! And Reflections on QLD Building Starts

Hi again! And Reflections on QLD Building Starts


Yes, I’m Back…

OK, OK, where have I been?

I’ve been busy, sorry; life has take a change about a year ago, and, yes, life has been quite different – for the better, largely, but I have certainly been much more time poor.

I am sorry, dear reader, that I have not given you a BurbWatch fix for so long!

Blog Hits, Yeah!

Hey, check out those 26,000+ hits! Nice.

Thankyou all for supporting this humble site so well since mid-2010.

Reflections: MacroBusiness – QLD New Building Starts

Yes, I do like the content at MacroBusiness; I’ll admit to being a regular reader 🙂

Anyhow, the Unconventional Economist (Leith Van Onselen) wrote a piece recently on the low housing starts in QLD.

Here is a key chart (QLD is the green-line trend):

Image

That is a concerning downwards trend.

With regard to BurbWatch, Leith’s article gave me (potentially) a bit of insight into what I have been seeing fairly consistently in QLD rental and sales listings trends since around June 2011: a consistent decline in total (sales + rental) listings:

That is, with a fast-growing population in QLD (as I understand it?), and a trend of declining new housing starts, it makes sense that people seeking a residence would be seeking existing stock from the market in such a manner to effect a shift in a medium-term trend; I would also suggest that relatively “significant” declines in QLD prices have also coaxed new buyers to purchase existing stock.

Further Perspective – BurbWatch Style

For a further insight, let’s delve into the BurbWatch charts for QLD, breaking down movements in the sales listings by price category (according to realestate.com.au).

Firstly, let’s look at the chronological distribution for the sales listings in QLD – by Quantity and then by Fraction:

Image

Image

I love seeing data presented in many different ways, and these Column Charts are an appropriate form for such data, in my honest opinion.

You can see inter- and intra-category trends in both charts – and I’ll leave you to infer your own interpretations (partly as I am still quite time-constrained).

The following Line Charts of exactly same data sets allow us to focus on different aspects – as follows, for the Quantities and then Fractions:

Image

Image

Again, these charts show us movements in the data sets from April 2011 to July 2012, that are not so easily discerned from the previous charts. Particularly, they allow us to appreciate changes in the shape and weight of the distribution – you can see in both cases different “leanings”, especially in the Fractions illustration.

The following charts are Column versions of the previous two Line Charts, respectively, and allow us to more easily appreciate the net intra-category movements over the specified time period:

Image

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These are really just net change versions of the first two charts.

Well, that’s all from me for now.

I hope you appreciate the charts, and that they help you glean what is occurring in the QLD property market.

One day I hope to have the time and opportunity to do more in-depth analyses of the data; but for now, I hope you are somewhat content with the presentation of the charts with cursory commentary.

Cheers,

Stewart

http://www.processolutions.com.au

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Categories: Uncategorized
  1. Jacks Money
    July 18, 2012 at 1:11 pm

    Welcome back to blog world
    Is the reason behind some of this is that in qld they don’t count grey nomads in caravans any more

    • July 18, 2012 at 1:17 pm

      Goodness, you’re up late!

      Dunno, John, your guess is as good as mine.

      Feel free to speculate…

  2. peter fraser
    July 18, 2012 at 11:32 pm

    Hi Stewart, I’m assuming that the dwelling starts is “all dwellings” – those Qld numbers look pretty right to me – they haven’t been building towers on the Gold Coast or Brisbane reall since the start of thge GFC – the big one “Vision” was cancelled, although now there is talk of some limited activity, none of it has started yet, probably due to insufficient pre-sales which will prohibit access to finance.
    I don’t think the home builders are erecting whole suburbs the way they were a few years ago.

    In my view that will create a serious undersupply very shortly in Qld. We still have net migration and organic population growth.

  3. peter fraser
    August 8, 2012 at 8:00 am

    Your graph here https://burbwatch.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/burbwatch-qld-relative-sales-as-at-3-8-2012.png looks as though buyer activity has increased. Am I reading that correctly?

    • August 8, 2012 at 12:12 pm

      Pete, yes, I would also agree that buyer activity has increased – the relative buying chart you are referring to has its recent trend increasing due to two simultaneous factors in recent times: increasing absolute sales, and declining sales listings.

      If you want any other info, just ask, and I’ll see what I can do – gives me an excuse to get off my bum and write something!

      I have so much data….there is so, so, so much to write about!!

      Stewart

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