Home > Uncategorized > Spotlight: Gladstone (QLD) – August 2011 to January 2012

Spotlight: Gladstone (QLD) – August 2011 to January 2012


I began collecting data from realestate.com.au for Gladstone (QLD), for an acquaintance in August 2011.

It has been 5 months since then, and I thought  that it was time I (remembered!) collected some more data…so, please find the following, without much commentary at all, of some selected Gladstone data – from August 2011 to January 2011.

Enjoy,

Stewart

…observe the large shift to the right (more expensive) in the above chart…

…this is just a line version of the first chart, but you might be able to appreciate the differences between the August 2011 profile/distribution, and the January 2012 distribution; you may be able to see that the Vendor Prices appear to be centralising (ie. gathering or “huddling” more around a central value – in the case of January 2012, the BurbWatch calculated median is ~$507K, and the Trimmed Weighted Average is ~$559K.

The changes from August 2011 to January 2012 in terms of vendor price – which reflect Vendor expectations, or hopes, not necessarily the final sale prices (which might be higher or lower) – are conveniently reflected in the following BurbWatch Vendor Price Indices Chart (where I show all three types of my indices, for the sake of comparison):

…please note that the Un-trimmed price index has exactly the same value (so far) as the Trimmed price index, so they occupy the same line in the chart.

But what a boom in Vendor Prices (ie. expectations, demands, and hopes), from the point of view of the calculated median, with a ~5% rise in 5 months! Good, or Ouch?

Honestly, I would expect the median to be a better representation of such a data set that is “skewed”, so I will remain more attached to believing this higher (~5%) figure than the lower trimmed and un-trimmed figures, at least for now (the reasons such as are mentioned in my last post).

But it is still important to consider such point values in the context of the shape and location of the distribution – not only has the distribution very obviously surged to the right (more expensive), it has also centralised, with lower fractions at the cheaper end (quite noticeable), and lower fractions at the more expensive end (less noticeable).

It will be interesting to see what happens at Gladstone over the next few quarters, and I will keep you all (including my acquaintance, “Lefty”) informed of the results.

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Categories: Uncategorized
  1. January 2, 2012 at 12:46 pm

    Nice work Stewart looks like a speculators market. I think your right a circa 5% increase which runs opposite to the QLD. market. But Gladstone also experienced a horrendous crash in the 80’s that might be interesting to review given the boom we’re in.

    TM.

  2. January 6, 2012 at 10:58 am

    Anna Bligh is talking up Queensland’s coal and LNG boom that she expects will drive a broader state recovery during 2012. What will this do to Gladstone’s 2012 house prices. http://tinyurl.com/7rrr6tt

    Cheers
    Stuart

  3. Bronto
    April 22, 2012 at 5:07 am

    Hi,

    From the graph it appears the jobs will max in 2004-2005,
    http://www.myprop.com.au/content/queensland-property-struggling-gfc

    If I buy a property in Gladstone, would it make any capital gain by
    say Jan 2014?

    Some people say 2012 may not be much capital growth for Gladstone.

    Thanking you in advance for your feedback…

    Dave.

    • April 22, 2012 at 7:19 am

      Dave,

      Thanks for your interest in the site, and the offerrings.

      Honestly, it is very difficult to predct whether an area would make capital gains by a certain date; additionally, it does really depend on when you buy, doesn’t it?!

      I am not one to offer advice, but would caution against property investment that is purposed, or has its viability dependent, upon capital gains – can get one tied up in knots, if it does not work as one hopes…

      Sorry that I am not being speculative in my speculation, but it is something that I try to avoid here at BurbWatch, as I try to provide a more disciplined, often retrospective provision.

      Regards,
      Stewart

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